South Asia is witnessing an unprecedented economic warfare that’s reshaping regional power dynamics. As the US-China trade tensions escalate and neighboring countries engage in tariff battles, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical crossroads. This comprehensive analysis examines Bangladesh’s strategic position in the South Asian economic war and what it means for the nation’s future.
History reveals that empires have constantly engaged in conflicts over various issues. In the past, wars were fought between empires. But over time, those empires have become chapters in history, preserved in museums. However, has war really ended?
The answer is no. War hasn’t ended—in fact, it has intensified. From military aggression, instability in the Middle East, the ongoing U.S.–Russia cold war, India’s water disputes, the Israel–Palestine conflict to the tech wars—each of these is a different form of warfare. The continents of the world seem locked in these battles. Among them, one particular war is rising quietly but powerfully across the globe: the economic war. And our South Asian countries are not sitting it out—they’ve stepped right into it.
The Economic Cold War in South Asia
Recently, under President Donald Trump, the U.S. has started playing a global “tariff game.” Especially since China is seen as a major rival, Trump has imposed one tariff after another on Chinese goods. In return, China has done the same to U.S. products. In April, the U.S. imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, and China responded with a 125% tariff on American goods. This back-and-forth in economics signals the rise of a trade war.
So far, Trump’s tariffs have also impacted South Asian nations like India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan. Meanwhile, a separate trade conflict has sparked between Bangladesh and India—India canceled transshipment routes, and Bangladesh halted cotton imports by road from India. Looking at this from a broader perspective, it’s clear that an economic war is brewing among South Asian countries. The critical question is, where does Bangladesh stand in this battle?
The Current Economic Landscape of South Asia
To understand this, we first need some context. South Asia accounts for nearly 25% of the world’s population. Among its nations, some economies are rising fast, while others—like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Sri Lanka—are facing severe challenges. Once under British rule, the Indian subcontinent was considered a crown jewel of the empire. But post-1947, after the partition of India and Pakistan, political and economic tensions began. Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971 further shaped the region’s geopolitics.
Meanwhile, China was advancing on its own path. During the U.S.-Russia cold war era, Pakistan aligned with the U.S., while India leaned toward the USSR. Though China is not officially part of South Asia, it shares borders with five South Asian countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Thus, it is deeply involved in both economic and political games in the region.
South Asia’s economic progress has been uneven, with each country charting its own path. Here’s a snapshot of current GDP figures (2024)
Key Statistics: South Asia Economic Indicators 2024
| Country | GDP (USD) | Export Growth (5Y) | Import Growth (5Y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | $3.7T | 148% | 78% |
| Bangladesh | $460B | 12% | 20% |
| Pakistan | $340B | 19% | -9% |
| Sri Lanka | $80B | – | – |
Source: World Bank, IMF Reports 2024
Of course, GDP alone doesn’t tell the whole story. What matters is how and where that GDP is being utilized.
The Game of Imports and Exports
Among India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, it’s fair to say that India holds the economic upper hand. India’s import-export volume surpasses both Bangladesh and Pakistan. From 2019 to 2024, India’s export growth rose by 148%, and its imports by 78%. Pakistan, on the other hand, saw just 19% growth in exports and a 9% decrease in imports. While Bangladesh and Pakistan are trying to keep pace, the core question remains: how far will this economic war go, and where does Bangladesh stand in it?
Bangladesh’s Position in the Economic War
Bangladesh had a GDP of $460 billion in the past year, maintaining a growth rate of around 6–7%. It is the world’s second-largest garment exporter, and also benefits significantly from remittances sent by workers in the Middle East.
Over the past five years, Bangladesh’s exports have grown by 12%, but imports have risen even more—by 20%. In 2024, exports were around $51 billion, but imports stood at $77 billion. So, yes—Bangladesh is advancing in the economic war. However, if it hopes to compete in a full-scale economic battle with its neighbors, it must strengthen its position further. The focus should be on reducing import dependency, increasing exports, or at the very least, balancing both.
Political Shift and Turning Point Under Dr. Yunus
in August 2024, the Sheikh Hasina government was ousted, and Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus was appointed interim Prime Minister. Under his leadership, Bangladesh began addressing key economic challenges:
- Renegotiation of the Adani power deal
- Debt restructuring related to the Rampal coal project
- Progress on IMF loan conditions
- Fairer distribution of Chinese tenders
These moves signal a potential turning point for the country. Bangladesh is strategically moving toward economic resilience.
Dr. Muhammad Yunus As a Chief Advisor Of Bangladesh
But although it’s becoming stronger, Bangladesh still has a long way to go to solidify its role. India and Pakistan are already caught in a military conflict, and neighboring countries like Bangladesh have indirectly been drawn into the situation. While a ceasefire is currently in place, geopolitical dynamics suggest that Bangladesh could face a major economic or military challenge in the near future.
Future Outlook for Bangladesh
Bangladesh is not falling behind—but to truly move forward, it must do much more. We need to boost exports, reduce reliance on imports, and forge smart international partnerships. The world is engaged in a silent war—sometimes through weapons, sometimes through trade agreements. In this silent war of South Asia, how visible will Bangladesh’s role be on the global stage?
